Skip to main content

tv   The Exchange  CNBC  March 1, 2024 1:00pm-2:00pm EST

1:00 pm
financials. citigroup is one of them. i'm not interested at all in the kre or regional banks. >> diamond hands, last word. >> thank you for clearing that up. i'm one of the most anxious viewers who was hoping you would. i'll go with google. it's extremely cheap. >> got to leave it there. that does it for us. "the exchange" with dom chu starts right now. ♪ ♪ >> all right. thank you very much, frank. welcome to "the exchange." i'm dom chick chu. here's what's ahead on the show. ineffective oversight and risk management. that's how management describes internal controls at new york comm community bank corps. we'll talk to someone who has managed risks in the financial sector. elon musk back this the headlines, suing openai and ceo sam altman. our market guest welcomes any
1:01 pm
pullback in tesla stock on that noise and ready to buy more. following bitcoin's monster run, we have a special three buys and a bail edition for crypto. that's all ahead. right now, know, markets are seemingly moving towards the highs of the session. it's green across the screen. you can see right there, the dow up about 0.2 of 1%. the s&p 500 up almost half of 1%. and thwe have boeing and spirit aerosystems. there could be deal talks growing between the two. that's where spirit shares are up north of 13%. plus, our chart of the day. it's new york community bank corps, ticker nycb, down about 25% again. this is the embattled new york based lender that replaced its ceo at this point.
1:02 pm
that's where we begin. leslie picker is here with the latest ohhen this saga. there are multiple headlines involving them today. >> multiple headlines, you're right. still losing about a quarter of its valuation. all of these just the latest salt in the wound of investors who have held onto new york bank community corps shares. the stock plunging at a filing revealed that management found material weaknesses in internal controls related to internal loan review. that review is not complete, meaning more problems would aice. they attribute the weakness to ineffective oversight, risk assessment, and monitoring activities. as a result, nycb needs to delay its annual report and will formulate a remediation plan. piper sander analyst downgrading that stock, because there is concern there could be more issues coming down the pike for that company.
1:03 pm
that is now the responsibility of a new management team. the executive chairman is assuming the ceo role, and marshal lux will become the new lead director and they announced they had filled the seats of chief risk officer and chief audit executive , two critical roles that had been vacant for months. nycy has lost more than 2/3 of market value after earnings reported at the end of january showed sizable deterioration in the company's office and multicommercial family real estate portfolio. the real importance here is to get that trust back from the investor community. so you're seeing these headlines, but based on the stock reaction, they haven't done too much to move the needle. >> not since the great financial crisis, risk officers have to be part of the equation.
1:04 pm
let's bring in someone who sees red nation emerging around things like consumer credit risks and says that a new banking rule expected to take effect this year could help mitigate some of those risks. joining us now is brian hughes, the former chief risk officer at discover. brian, this is something that, again, as i pointed out since the days of the great financial crisis, banks have had to focus especially, especially laser on. what exactly, in your mind, happened with regard to oversight here and what exactly do banks like nycb do to restore that trust that leslie mentioned? >> well, usually when you hear an announcement like this out of information ycb and an internal view underway, you mentioned ear earlier, you almost are always going to hear more bad news. so unwise to speculate at this time maybe what that bad news
1:05 pm
be. but when it comes to credit risks, whether you're dealing with customers of nycb or the customers that i dealt with when i was a chief risk officer at discover, usually more information is better. and that's the case with this new rule that's coming out from the cfpb regarding open banking, and that it will provide more information for lenders to be able to assess the credit risk of their consumers. >> what's interesting about this, by its own admission in these regulatory filings, it was some of the lack of internal controls and risk assessments around that lending practice within the bank that has kind of led to what could be further details to emerge about what's going to happen down the line at nycb. what will these transparency -- proposed transparency rules do to help those lenders make better decisions about lending, and by extension, how can
1:06 pm
lenders be more trustworthy with regard to sticking to some of those rules to make sure the banks don't face this again in the future? >> yeah. so what these new open banking rules will do is going to be great for banks and consumers. because what these rules will do is it will allow banks to safely -- allow consumers to safely share information with banks that will allow them to make more fair and more informed underwriting decisions. and the specific information that this rule is going to call on banks to share, and we expect the rule to be finalized sometime this year, and basically think about the information you as a consumer get on your checking account or on your credit card. all that information that's in those monthly statements. in addition to the information that they might send you around the terms and conditions. this will be information that you'll be able to safety and securely share with other companies and by doing so, i can
1:07 pm
see three benefits that will occur for consumers. one, it will be easier to switch banks, if you want to, because you'll be able to take your information with you. that will make banks work harder to keep your business. two, it will be easier to be approved for a credit card or a loan, because this information that's in your account, it has to do with your actual income and expenses. it's information that's not currently in the credit bureau reports, which a lot of banks use to underwrite consumers. so we call it orthago. third, it's going to make it easier to manage your money, because these regulations will enable this data sharing and a new wave of money management services to come out to help consumers manage their money. so it will help consumers and help lenders by allowing them to make more informed decisions. >> leslie, it's interesting, because the way brian phrases
1:08 pm
it, it almost sounds like the common app. you have this battery of information that just follows you around and it allows you to have a more seamless transition between institutions. this is a different set of problems that nycb is facing than just a year ago, when it was a balance sheet issue across a number of different banks because of a rise in interest rates that make collateral worth less, and all of a sudden things started to boil over. this doesn't seem like it could be a contagion type effect, unless it's symptomatic. right or wrong? >> last year's issues stemmed from the historic rise in interest rates. so think of 2023 regional bank turmoil as being purely related to interest rates. this year, it's more about credit quality. so you've got these loan books. you have a lot of exposure to commercial real estate.
1:09 pm
they have lived in a world where valuations are going down, interest rates have remained high. their ability to service that debt becomes much more stressed if you're a land lord or you own an office property. therefore, investor attention and analyst attention has turned towards credit quality. that's a big unknown there. it has less to do with this rising tide of interest rates, which could affect banks differently, but they're all facing the broad macro experience, and more to do with the kinds of loans were you making, and did those turn out to be prudent decisions? that's the real question of 2024 so far. >> that's an interesting point with regard to the shifting risks out there. i would like to also pivot now, brian, to something else from a risk perspective that could be at least affecting a larger part of the u.s. population, and that's the pending deal that we have on the books for capital one bank, which is a very big
1:10 pm
credit card lender, to go and buy smaller fellow bank discover, but also payments. i wonder if you could take us through the quote unquote risks for not just the banks themselves but the system and consumers overall if a deal like this were to go through. >> yeah. so i think a deal like this goes through, you've got two very strong banks here. capital one and discover, strong, innovative, pro-consumer banks that are coming together. i think that, you know, the resulting products will still be very beneficial for consumers. they are both main stream consumer banks, credit cards, auto loans and the like. those offerings i see them as still being strong and better. the big thing that might happen here, and i think it was highlighted on the investor call last week is what could happen
1:11 pm
with the discover network, which today is sort of in fourth place of networks, visa and mastercard being very big, discover sort of the fourth network. i think the scale at capital one could bring to that could make that network a much more viable competitor to visa and mastercard. that's the value that capital one sees in the deal, a and that could be the value to consumers, as well, to have another competitor in there and of course, the merchant community also is sort of desiring for another competitor in there, and sort of the battle over that and the like continues. so i think when itcomes to the consumer side, you know, two strong ones coming together. on the payments network side, kind of an interesting effect with the ability to build down the discover network. >> what do you make of the timing of this deal, given where
1:12 pm
we are with consumer dleen again sis and the like? -- delinquencies and the like? >> the timing is favorable. a year ago at this time, we were saying oh, here comes the recession now. all these rate hikes and the economic cycles going to turn. now we're starting to see a soft landing take shape. you know, sort of too early to declare it. but i think the signs are there of a soft landing taking shape in terms of the resilience of the job market. consumer delinquencies for credit, yes, they're up versus a year ago. but over the longer run averages, you know, still in a pretty favorable place. and consumer balance sheets are still better than they were precovid. there's a little bit of that covid savings this there, and a strong job market. so some of the dark clouds over the economic future that were here maybe at this time last year dissipated a little bit. and certainly for consumer
1:13 pm
lending, that makes things a lot better, both capital one and discover are a bit cyclical as they go up and down with the economy. so i would say a more favorable time for the outlook forl both of them. >> brian hughes, thank you very much for the insight. and to our own leslie picker, as well. now to our other top story today. it's tesla's ceo elon musk suing openai and its ceo for breach of contract. musk, who helped found the chatgbt maker, said they broke an agreement to develop ai for the benefit of humanity by focusing now on profits. so will this lawsuit be another distraction for tesla and its ceo? our next guest recently increased her position in tesla, and says there may be an initial knee jerk reaction to the news, but she would add more tesla stock on any bit of weakness. joining me now with that view is nancy tangler.
1:14 pm
thank you very much here for joining us with this. let's talk first about what's happening now with tesla's ceo. elon musk already a billionaire. i don't know how many times over at this point. is this just another distraction with openai and this lawsuit? >> i think it is, dom. i think the market will quickly turn to other issues. the thought the more important news was the announcement that they are adding incentives in china to lower prices and increase demand. but his distractions would probably put most of us, you know, under the table. but he just moves on. i was at the makeup factory thanks to the folks at rbc, and there is a lot of promising stuff going on at that company. >> what is the promising stuff? and we already know that you're bullish and long in the stock and you have a vested interest in this stock going higher. but what makes you that much more bullish?
1:15 pm
what did you see that made you feel like this is something that you want to keep on accumulating? >> well, so the manufacturer makes battery storage, basically utility grade battery storage. so these big walls of batteries that will really change the way that electric utilities operate and should reduce outages, as well as all the forest fires that we've been seeing over the years. in the master plan three presentation that tesla made a year ago, they estimated that battery storage could account for 5% of total fossil fuel reduction. that's versus 21% for the car. add to that, they only have a 15% market share, but they have a cost advantage of about 30% due to their vertical integration efforts and cost reductions, obviously. this is now the fastest growing, most profitable business at tesla, and some estimate will be worth 1.5 times worth the car business in the not too distant future.
1:16 pm
>> that's a huge thesis for the bull side of things. one of the reasons for the downside are the concerns about china. hyper competitive market out there right now. we have a lot of price wars if you want to call them going on, and a slowing ev demand picture here in america. how does all that counter out, and maybe the price does reflect why those issues have become more front and center. >> yeah. it's a real concern. we initiated our position during the last distraction, which was the x acquisition. we bought it last january at $105 a share. that was a short-lived distraction. so what you have to pay attention to with this company, where is the technology going and where are they going to see the growth? this they can grow this business half as fast as they think they can, it will solve so many problems with renewables and usage of renewables on a 24-hour per day schedule. so i -- and they are monetizing
1:17 pm
it to a great degree. it's a nascent industry. so that's where investors are missing some of the focus, and they're reacting to the headlines around the slowing ev demand around the globe. i just leased an ev in the uk and it was a nightmare trying to find a charging station, not being familiar with the territory. so they're not for everyone. but people want to buy teslas more than evs. >> nancy, before we let you go, you manage all kinds of other investments besides tess law enforcement we just had a huge segment facing nycb and the regional banking sector. do you think regional banks are still attractive right now or are you reducing? >> we are reducing. there's just better places to be. i don't think there's necessarily going to be a crisis throughout the industry, but i think there's better places to
1:18 pm
invest, particularly in financials. we added a position in brookfield management, private credit seems to have a lot more flexibility. we increased our exposure to american express. i don't think you have to own regionals to participate in the financial sector. >> nancy, thank you very much. coming up on the show, if you're another -- if you're a driver with a need for speed, you may want to resent one of their products here. we'll talk to the ceo of a transportation safety tech company that missed on the bottom line but gave stronger than expected guidance. it's all about mobility and the need some people have for speed. shares are up about 5%. plus, bitcoin blowing past $60,000, inching closer to an all-time high. but if you missed the boat on bitcoin, can you still get in on that trade? we have a special crypto edition of three buys and a bail coming
1:19 pm
up. "the exchange" is back after this. you got this. let's go. gobble gobble. i've seen bigger legs on a turkey! rude. who are you? i'm an investor in a fund that helps advance innovative sports tech like this smart fitness mirror. i'm also mr. leg day...1989! anyone can become an agent of innovation with invesco qqq, a fund that gives you access to nasdaq-100 innovations. i go through a lot of pants. before investing carefully read and consider fund investment objectives, risks, charges, expenses and more in prospectus at invesco.com. rylee! from rylee's realty! hi! this listing sounds incredible. let's check it out. says here it gets plenty of light. and this must be the ocean view? of aruba? huh. this listing is misleading. well, when at&t says we give businesses get our best deal, on the iphone 15 pro made with titanium. we mean it. amazing. all my agents want it. says here...“inviting pool”. come on over! too inviting. only at&t gives businesses our best deals on any iphone.
1:20 pm
get iphone 15 pro on us. (♪♪)
1:21 pm
welcome back to "the exchange." smart transportation company verra mobility was the mystery chart we showed you. slight miss for the quarter on the bottom line. the company makes the hardware and software for things like
1:22 pm
traffic and speed cameras. the strobe lights and stop lines, and a whole lot more, as well. joining us now for more in an exclusive interview is david roberts, the president and ceo. david, thank you very much for being here. i know that there are a lot of drivers out there who may bemoan some of your products, but they're out there for a reason, and municipalities across the country have adopted them. take us through what exactly smart mobility is and why you're so optimistic about the coming months and quarters. >> yeah, of course. first of all, thanks for having me. smart mobility refers to a category of technology solutions that make transportation safer and easier for customers. customers can be municipalities, commercial fleets and even universities and municipalities around parking solutions. what you're seeing is the technology is really starting to enable better decisions, better capabilities that have measurable impact and make
1:23 pm
things safer inside of cities. you referenced some of our cameras earlier. we see 30% reductions in accidents and speed overall per intersection where those cameras exist, and that's better for reducing fatalities and accidents. >> we talk about mobility solutions in the context of our current time. people drift toward things like artificial intelligence, autonomous driving, that sort of thing. is there something that you guys are doing that is enabling your company to participate in that autonomous drivering/ai boom we're seeing else where in the market? >> as you think about autonomous driving, as we've been public for five years, we are certainly watching that technology, but as we said all along, and we still believe the sort of proliferation of autonomous driving into the u.s. markets is a long, long, long way away. so in the meantime, you have
1:24 pm
over 220 million vehicles that aren't autonomous, and have the propensity to have accidents and fatalities. and our goal to work with cities to prevent that. as you relate to ai, we use ai inside of our camera technology that allows us to have smarter conceptualization that is what happening roadside that gives more data to customers. >> how do mobility solutions like yours play into these fleet automobiles, some of your biggest customers out there are fleet operations, they could be rental car providers. but what is your business outside of just say the self-pay parking meters and this speed cameras that have caught people with their license plates over the course of the last several years? >> we also work with rental car companies and fleet management companies around tolling. so if you live in a certain area and you have your own tolling account, that's one thing.
1:25 pm
but when you remtnt a car, we he technology integrations around the country and even in europe that allow our customer's customer to use those toll roads to make their trip a little easier. >> what is the future look like for a company that already deals in futuristic stuff right now? we talked about afi, but how dos your company then sell that thesis to investors? what is the big picture you're trying to tell investors there will be about in the next five years? >> first and foremost, our core business, we talked about this in investor day a couple of years ago, is really strong. the markets, whether that's in the automated enforcement or in tolling or in parking, all have some secular tail winds pushing those core businesses along. so we're excited about the businesses we're in. in addition, there are other things that are going to be coming along we believe we can be a part of around connective
1:26 pm
voke technology, anything from how do fleets manage and deploy vehicles and make sure their drivers are behaving safely, everything from how does the car become a payment mechanism for a consumer? all of those are areas we look at and we'll be a part of that future. but the core business is set up for success for many years to come. >> market cap just shy of $3.8 billion. david roberts, thank you very much, sir. >> thanks for having me. coming up, boeing postponed its guidance following that boeing 737 max 9 door plug blowout in january. here's what the ceo told phil lebeau back then. >> i want everybody, everybody on every airplane to know that boeing owns it. we own our supply chain, we own spirit. we own the results oh of our work. we understand that. we really do. >> well, those words are taking on a whole new meaning today, as
1:27 pm
shares of spirit aerosystems that boeing is in talks to possibly bite. he e tas mi uweavthdeilcongp next.
1:28 pm
1:29 pm
oh no, a rash. maybe it'll go away. awww, how am i going to find a doctor i'll actually like? is that a qr code? dr. stafford makes you feel at ease. thanks rash! you've got more options than you know. book now.
1:30 pm
welcome back to "the exchange." shares of spirit aerosystems are moving higher on talks that boeing are in talks to buy the troubled fuselage maker. spirit shares are back in positive territory for the year, but bowing is down more than 20%. let's bring in leslie josephs who confirmed the story with one of her sources, as well. what's old is new again. i don't know if this is a company trying to recombine now. can you take us through what the thinking is and why this deal is coming together now? >> boeing, and we talked about this over the years, one production problem after another. manufacturing flaws, everything from fuselage skins not being lined up right, and the maker of the fuselage, probably the key supplier that boeing can have, is spirit aero systems. now boeing is trying to get a
1:31 pm
handle on these problems which culminated this january 5th accident on alaska airlines. we saw the videos of the gaping hole after a door plug blew out. they're trying to make taking spirit in house is their way to get a handle on the problems. saz general contractor uses other contractors but they're responsible for it. in this case here, is there a benefit to having this? weren't they responsible, i guess in my mind, for the quality control issues of another company to begin with? what does this do by bringing it back in house at this particular junction? >> that's a really good question? they were responsible, so the fuselages would be shipped up to washington where boeing assembles the 737 max and other variants of that plane, and having more eyes and ears and having everything in house, boeing is thinking it does seem to be the -- there are thousands of parts on an aircraft that
1:32 pm
having this key supplier in house might help quality issues and have a better monitoring system and just better control really over its supply chain. >> this is interesting. because this is a different set of circumstances by which a merger is being contemplated. hypothetically, if this does kind of get formally announced. the justice department and regulators have not had a great amount of optimism about deals getting done. it's not just been horizontal like boeing with airbus, something hypothetical like that, but it's been supply chains, vertical integration has come under a lot of scrutiny. do you think this is one where regulators say because of the circumstances, we should just let this deal go through? if it were to happen? >> yeah. we don't know. we should state that a deal might not come to fruition, of course. but it's not really clear yet. this is a tricky one, so it's not like jetblue and spirit
1:33 pm
airlines that were challenged, and the doj won their lawsuit and airlines are appealing. and they're trying to gain scale within a very concentrated u.s. airline market. you know, aviation also is under a ton of consolidation. rtx has gotten bigger and bigger over the years. but this a smaller company, key to boeing, it was part of its supply chain before, and it's not like boeing has a bunch of fuselage suppliers it can go to. there's a high barrier to aerospace to begin with, safety checks and just the capital that you need for this industry. so we will have to see. it's not clear, but it is different than some of the mergers that we have seen. >> leslie, thank you for being here. well, for the full story, go over to cnbc.com. that story is up there, all the context you need for that possible deal. now to pippa stevens with a cnbc news update.
1:34 pm
the newark man who shot a young woman in his driveway will spend at least 25 years in prison. the 66-year-old man was convicted in january for the murder of a young woman who accidently turned into his driveway while searching for a party. in addition to themurder charge, the man received a sentence for tampering with evidence. the cdc is dropping guidance that covid positive patients should isolate for five days, ending the strategy in place since the pandemic that health experts said was an important part of controlling the spread. the agency issuing new guidelines today aimed at treating covid more like other respiratory infections. first responders made a daring rescue today, saving the driver of a semi truck dangling off the clark memorial bridge in louisville, kentucky. the bridge is still closed to traffic after the semi appeared to have been going north before it crossed to the south bound lane, crashing through a guard rail.
1:35 pm
that is quite the video. >> pippa stevens, thank you very much for the news update. bitcoin's monster rally has crypto at a near high. up next, we'll look at the three buys and one bail this the crypto space. and check out dell, having its best day ever, hitting an all-time high after the company posted an earnings beat. it's heightening its dividend by 20%. shares arep 0% u20 over the course of the past year. things can transform. slipping out of balance into freefall. i'm glad i found stability amidst it all. gold. standing the test of time. switch to shopify and sell smarter at every stage of your business. take full control of your brand with your own custom store. scale faster with tools that let you manage every sale from every channel.
1:36 pm
and sell more with the best converting checkout on the planet. a lot more. take your business to the next stage when you switch to shopify. encore energy, america's clean energy company, now in production in south texas. energizing america with reliable and affordable uranium for nuclear energy fuel from our environmentally friendly extraction process. encore energy.
1:37 pm
1:38 pm
welcome back to "the exchange." it's been a huge week for crypto systems thanks to the bitcoin etf boom. joining mess now for "three buys and a bail" is danielle shea over at simpler trading. danielle, thank you for being with us here. let's go first to the biggest name in the space, and that's just bitcoin itself. it's up more than 21% this week, within striking distance of its record high. february was its best month since 2020. but jpmorgan predicts a correction after the hype surrounding its next halving event in april starts to cool down a bit.
1:39 pm
is bitcoin a buy? >> yes, it is a buy for me right here, because you know why? when you get so close to that previous all-time high, it just acts as a magnet. so i'm looking at this $69,000 price point as a critical target. here's the thing, if we see momentum and we break through that high, my next target overhead is going to be $80,000. so i still think there's more room to run. obviously, it would have been better to buy it lower, but this is a great trade right here. >> oh that's the bitcoin underline. let's move up to some of the other ways to play it. the pro shares bitcoin strategy etf, which invests in bitcoin futures, not bitcoin directly per se. the fund has seen more than $133 million in net inflows, bringing total assets to roughly $2 billion. do you like byto and why? >> i like this because it a es a
1:40 pm
great way to trade it through an etf. i also like it because traders can trade it in the options market. so right now, it is right up against resistance around $30 a share. but as i mentioned, we have that momentum in bitcoin. if we can break out above that overhead resistance, it will be a great momentum trade. because this is a low-price ticker to get into, especially with the low price options, traders can come in and buy out of the money calls, three, six months down the line for a relatively good price in case of a continuation of breakout. >> all right, the last buy here is coinbase, shares up 60% in the last month. but some say it's gotten too expensive and sees 40% downside ahead. but you're sticking with coinbase? >> the reason i like coinbase is
1:41 pm
because obviously it moves with bitcoin and being bullish bitcoin, it makes sense. but more than that, you can see it's broken up above the key support zone at $200 a share. so if it stays above $200, we have been able to breach a lot of resistance, i have an upside target of about $250. and if you look at earnings, it's been doing relatively well over the course of the last four quarters, or better than expected. so i like this continued momentum, as long as it tays above $200. >> those are the three buys. let's move on to the bail. which is bitcoin miner riot platforms. roth mkm expects a margin boost from the halving event, but you're not betting on this stock over the longer term. >> i'm not, because first of all, i don't ever like betting on anything to the long side that has relative weakness. as you noted, it's down on the year, and there's a ton of overhead resistance in this name.
1:42 pm
so what that means is you've had a ton of buyers at much higher prices. when the stock trades higher, you have a lot of people that need to get out. while it can be good for some shorter term trades and traders are always asking me about this name, i would not want to bet on this one in the long run to the upside. and especially if it breaks below $12 a share, that's the point where i would say it's a great short. >> okay. danielle shea, three buys and a bail, kricrypto edition. have a nice weekend. there's the bear case. stick around for power lunch next hour, because we'll hear from the ceo of riot platforms, jason les. an interview you don't want to miss. we'll be right back after this. but first, still ahead on "the exchange," markets, not expecting any this year now, any. the former fed governor jeremy
1:43 pm
stein tells us what he sees coming down the pike, coming up after this.
1:44 pm
♪ i'm gonna hold you forever... ♪ ♪ i'll be there... ♪ ♪ you don't... ♪ ♪ you don't have to worry... ♪
1:45 pm
to build the electric vehicle of the future, you need partners. mining partners. technology partners. education. supply chain. energy. what if one partner could do it all? that partner is ontario, canada. with all the critical minerals to make electric vehicle batteries. 65,000 stem graduates per year. one of north america's largest i.t. clusters. a fully integrated supply chain. all powered by one of the cleanest grids in north america. ontario. your innovation partner. ( ♪♪ )
1:46 pm
welcome back to "the exchange." the fed's march meeti ing less than three weeks away. wow a cut is basically off the table, there's debate about when powell will cut rates, if at all this year. steve liesman has spoke on the a handful of fed presidents at the u.s. monetary policy forum in new york today, and joins us now alongside former fed governor jeremy stein. i'll send it over to you, steve. >> dom, yesterday i promised you what i thought would be one of the most interesting discussions of the day, and i think we have it. former fed governor jeremy stein. give me your thoughts right off the bat on whether or not you think the fed can bring inflation back down to 2.0%. >> yeah, i think that may be
1:47 pm
challenging. so obviously i preface it by saying we're in an amazing place. if you think back to where we were a year ago, it's unfathomable where we are, inflation being this low and the labor market still being basically great. >> nobody here was predicting that last year. >> exactly. so the context for this has to be whether by luck or by skill, they've done an amazing job. now, my best guess right now is that inflation is tracking 2.8. i don't know that it is going to want to voluntarily fall much further of its own accord. it's come back a lot in part because of the supply chain stuff reversing itself. the models that they use have a bit of a magic effect where if you say two, it just drops to two. i don't really buy that. >> you think the fed should cut its losses now and reverse
1:48 pm
policy? what would be -- >> i think it depends on the context. right now, we have a strong -- the labor market is strong. output growth is strong. i would be inclined to be a little patient and wait a couple of meetings. so in that sense, they can be pursuing the goal of getting inflation down a little bit further. i'm not against them doing that. the tradeoff, if it starts to bite and the economy weakens, you -- they're at the start they have to balance both legs of the mandate. stlz i >> there is a big debate on what the neutral rate is. it just means what's normal? where would the fed put the interest rate right now if it was not trying to accelerate or decelerate the economy? the fed seems to say that rate is 2.5%. does that seem right to you? >> that seems low. we're talking about -- if it's 2.5% nominal, that seems low. i think actually where the
1:49 pm
market is right now, so if you look at the two-year t-bill, which is a reasonable proxy for the path of monetary policy, that's this the fours. that strikes me as reasonable. i think we're in a different economy than we were in the years leading up. >> what makes it different? >> some of it -- you can point to some fundamental factors. government spending, all that puts pressure on savings. i think some of it is just the path that we have taken. so we took a path through high inflation, and i think that has more inertia than we give it credit for. inflation was stubbornly in the 1s for a while, and that has some self-fulfilling history to it. people's expectations for it going forward may be higher, and that makes it settle at a higher level. >> so what you're saying to investors, we're not clicking our heels and going back to kansas of 2% or sub-2%
1:50 pm
inflation. i would argue the following way, which is what about all those forces, the global forces, the excess savings glut, the things that cause us to believe we would be in a sub-2% inflation world? i think we may have overfit of stories in other words, we definitely had low rates. was it really because of a savings clause? was it really because of something else? those or stories that work really well after the fact. and a little less sure that was the reason. some offense, i think, especially in the ten years leading up to the pandemic, because we had low rates because we had low rates. i think there is an extent to which the economy gets a little bit addicted to low rates, so, so fed keeps rates low for a long time, they bring forward a lot of consumption, everybody buys a new car and a new refrigerator, and then you have to keep rates low to keep things going. so, our star was definitely
1:51 pm
low, but i'm not so sure a simple, it's this demographic thing or that demographic thing is the aspect. >> we're kind of out of time here. should the fed be so quick next time, hopefully, there is never an x, time to go to zero and -- again, or do those things look like at the end of the day, they will more troubled on the, worth cons of how difficult it is to exit? >> i think they will have to go, it, out of the economy is really suffering, it's their job. you sit on the chair, they have to certainly go with rates. i think the last round of q, in retrospect, doesn't look very good. i think moore was done relative to sort of the efficacy of it, and because rates went up, they end up losing a lot of money on that. so that's a real cost to taxpayers. i think we will have to be more prudent. what i rule ut doing it at all? now >> but less likely. >> i would be a little more ginger, i think. >> jeremy stein, thank you so
1:52 pm
much are joining us. don, back to you. higher for longer, i, think is what jeremy's sagging. >> i think i've heard that before, steve liesman. thank you very much to you and jeremy side as well. coming up on the show, shares of pay -- up 25% this week out of growth reference, you beat that guidance. some -- expenses here, an increasingly across and see where declare else clients, that story icongexs mi nt. fr! hi! this listing sounds incredible. let's check it out. says here it gets plenty of light. and this must be the ocean view? of aruba? huh. this listing is misleading. well, when at&t says we give businesses get our best deal, on the iphone 15 pro made with titanium. we mean it. amazing. all my agents want it. says here...“inviting pool”. come on over! too inviting. only at&t gives businesses our best deals on any iphone. get iphone 15 pro on us. (♪♪)
1:53 pm
1:54 pm
1:55 pm
>> all of these chains. present powers bank usable staples and discretionary names of the consumer side, while some input costs have come down, there's still plenty of potential margin pressures out there, particularly for the restaurant business. kate rogers joins us now with more on that story. hi, kate. >> hey, don let's start with mcdonald's. the company ceo noted that consumers making last $45,000 annually were visiting class. he said you likely see them continue to evolve value offerings to maintain perceptions around value after the brand. some of mcdonald's franchisees are pushing to add cheaper items, like snack wraps, back on the menu instead of discounting core menu items
1:56 pm
moving ahead. wendy's, a huge other for example here. the company had to issue a statement this week that walked back comments made earlier in the quarter about digital menu boards and dynamic pricing, which was widely interpreted as quote, surge pricing. it said in a statement this week, we said these menu boards would give us more flexibility to change the display of featured items. this was misconstrued in some media reports as an intent to raise prices when demand is highest at our restaurants. we have no plans to do that and would not raise prices when our customers are visiting us the most. finally, beyond meet this week was soaring as its ceo unveiled a plan to restore margins for the company. the stock move merely 100% at one point. it will get there with a tiered pricing structure, as part of the formula, and its new healthier broker in retail stores a, k, groceries, going to be a more premium priced offering. he was saying even if customers are turned off by higher prices, the higher prices will likely make up for that loss, which is fascinating. >> let's talk about prices and pricing. wages are gonna go up in california next month.
1:57 pm
how is that gonna impact fast food prices, especially there? >> yeah, $20 an hour, specifically for the fast food sector. huge. it's gonna be the highest in the nation. every company essentially is watching this. aaa is one name. i think it has about 15% of its restaurants here in california. it was kind of noting the pricing, again, could go up as a result of that. you've heard the mcdonald's franchisees talking about that, and one thing i think is really fascinating is that some restaurants, i would have to imagine will look for more ways to automate the process with their workforce, and chipotle is a great example of one company that's been really investing in this, testing out some storm technology, we've shown on tv we are also caught so and it's shipping machines are making is tortilla chips, prepping avocados. it's one way to streamline operations right? they could potentially make things easier for the workers to have down the line. >> kate rogers, thank you very much for that. that doesn't for the exchange. let's see if we can break down. t bisid back after th se ofhereak.
1:58 pm
your shipping manager left to “find themself.” leaving you lost. you need to hire.
1:59 pm
i need indeed. indeed you do. indeed instant match instantly delivers quality candidates matching your job description. visit indeed.com/hire hey you, with the small business... ...whoa... you've got all kinds of bright ideas, that your customers need to know about. constant contact makes it easy. with everything from managing your social posts, and events, to email and sms marketing. constant contact delivers all the tools you need to help your business grow. get started today at constantcontact.com constant contact. helping the small stand tall. investment opportunities constant contact. are everywhere you turn.
2:00 pm
do you charge forward? freeze in your tracks? or, let curiosity light the way. at t. rowe price, we ask smart questions about opportunities like advances in healthcare and how these innovations will create a healthier world tomorrow. better questions. better outcomes. >> welcome to power lunch, she's the -- i'm so -- is suing in open a.i.. musk says they -- got away from their mission from the use of a.i. from the coast of humanity, wow -- as well as anyone else will join us later on. ♪

35 Views

info Stream Only

Uploaded by TV Archive on